2,000 simulations per match · OPI power ratings · @mlsscorigami.bsky.social

How this works: each club's rating blends OPI (an underlying-quality power rating) with actual points-per-game, weighted roughly 55/45. Remaining regular-season games and the full playoff bracket — Wild Card, best-of-3 Round One, Conference Semis, Conference Final, and MLS Cup — are simulated 2,000 times per update. The Shield winner hosts MLS Cup if they reach the final; otherwise home field goes to whichever finalist had the better overall regular-season record. Match win probabilities come from each team's rating gap plus home-field advantage, with extra unpredictability added to knockout games since single-elimination soccer is noisier than a full season suggests. The constants driving all of this are estimates, not fit to real 2025/2026 results yet — treat the odds as directional, not exact forecasts.