Analysis: Are Nashville SC a Supporters' Shield contender?

Nashville SC are in fine form heading into the second half of the 2025 season. On an 11-match unbeaten run, the Coyotes are currently fifth in the Supporters' Shield standings, the trophy given to the team with the best regular-season record.

What does it take to become a Supporters' Shield winner, and how close are Nashville SC to reaching that level? To answer this, let's look at the last 10 Shield winners (excluding 2020 due to COVID) to determine the standard for finishing first in the regular season.

Supporters' Shield winners have elite home form

Nashville have had some frustrating results at home. From the snoozer against the Revolution to blowing a tw0-goal lead against NYCFC, it’s been decent-but-not-enough. And while they can avoid losses, great teams find ways to turn draws into wins at home.

Nashville currently have six wins, three draws and one loss at home. However, 2.1 points per game might not cut it. Every team in our sample averaged at least 2.18, with eight out of 10 averaging 2.29. Nashville’s projected 10 home wins won't be enough to meet this standard.

Many of Nashville’s struggles come from breaking down teams that have no intention of walking away with three points. Nashville has played seven home games where the opponents’ defensive action average height was 40.5 meters from their own goal or less, meaning they sat deep in a low defensive block. In those games, Nashville have a record of 4W-3D-0L and were shut out twice.

Supporters' Shield winners find a way to get three points against bunkering sides. Nashville will improve as they continue to develop as a possession-based team, but right now, it might be too late.

Criteria: Not met

Supporters' Shield winners are stellar on the road

This is another criterion where Nashville fall just short. At 1.38 points per game on the road, the Boys In Gold will need to step it up in the second half of the season if they want to lift the Shield.