Nashville are soaring after five games, and following their third consecutive victory, they've outscored opponents eight to one during that stretch. Nashville SC fans are allowing themselves to dream. But is it truly time to go full steam ahead on the hype train, or are fans setting themselves up for disappointment again?
There’s no denying Nashville have been excellent in the buildup, but they haven’t been rewarded on the xG tables. Nashville have produced only 1.1 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes and 0.08 npxG per shot, placing them 18th and 26th in MLS. Their attack is sustained by their buildup play, which generates a high volume of chances. However, if the Boys in Gold are going to aim higher than the play-in game, they need to create higher-quality chances and unlock their MVP.
A potentially fraudulent attack
Nashville have been excellent in their build-up play, with a final third efficiency that ranks among the best. For every touch in the final third (outside the box), Nashville average 0.2 touches inside the box, marking the seventh-best rate in the league.
Teams in the top half of this statistic average 1.4 non-penalty expected goals per game, while teams in the bottom half average just 1.0 npxG. Among the top half teams, only three have produced fewer than 6.2 npxG this season: Nashville (5.5 npxG), St. Louis, and Houston. They’re getting the ball into dangerous areas, but that isn’t reflected in their xG production.
Another area of success for Nashville has been their play once they enter the box. Nashville average two touches in the box per entry. Among the seven teams in MLS that create less than 0.1 npxG per shot, four rank among the bottom six in penalty touches per entry. Nashville and Seattle are the only teams in the top half of this statistic below 0.1 npxG per shot.
This isn’t the only area where Nashville and Seattle are peculiar outliers. I analyzed a sample of 44 teams since 2018 that had a similar number of shots per 90 minutes (13-16) and average distance per shot (15-18 yards). The average non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes for those teams was an impressive 1.5. Seattle and Nashville sit at the bottom of that table with 1.1 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. This suggests that NSC may see some positive regression towards the mean, and while I agree that this is possible, I also think there is another issue that could be more challenging to resolve, which we’ll discuss in a bit.
Hany Mukhtar’s contributions
Examining the potential root cause of Nashville SC’s chance creation issues in greater detail reveals a glaring red flag, a red flag that three managers have struggled to address for almost two years: Hany Mukhtar.
With a staggering 17 shots at only 0.04 npxG per shot, Mukhtar is significantly hurting the overall average. Only four players in MLS have taken 10 or more shots this season at less than 0.04 npxG/shot.
Mukhtar has been highly aggressive in trying to find his lost MVP form, often taking the first chance open to him. That is fine within the correct context of the game, but the issue is that these aggressive shots must be supplemented by higher-quality chances.
In 2023, only two percent of Mukhtar’s shots came from inside the box. In 2024, Mukhtar took more shots from outside than inside the box. And worse yet, Mukhtar has yet to take a shot inside the six-yard box in 2025. This ugly trend is reflected in his average npxG per shot per season. Of his 17 non-penalty shots this season, three had an xG higher than 0.1, and all three of those shots were headers.
I wouldn’t say Mukhtar is past it; he just isn’t getting service like he used to. He’s averaging only 3.54 touches inside the box per 90. This is his lowest average since 2020, and it’s two touches fewer than his MVP season in 2022. He’s not getting the ball in dangerous areas, and he’s forced to take bad shots to get involved in the attack, which is hurting Nashville SC overall.
On the top are Mukhtar's shots from 2025. On the bottom are his goals from 2022. I highlighted some poor shots on the left that combined for 0.24 xG. And here lies the explanation for the problem we discussed earlier, why the team’s xG is so low despite taking close-range shots. These are not good chances because they’re not at favorable angles. If the 'Yotes keep taking shots from these tough angles, they won't be in line for any positive regression.
Now, I’m not suggesting to former MVP and Nashville legend Hany Mukhtar which shots he should or shouldn't take. If anyone has earned the right to shoot from a difficult angle, it’s Mukhtar. After all, look at his goals from 2022; he has several from a tight angle on the right side. The problem, yet again, is that these are the only shots he's taking. If he can complement this side of his game by adding shots from close range in the center of the box, the attack will reach a level we’ve never seen in Nashville.
And there it is. Nashville will be okay going forward as this attack grows and gels. I’m very encouraged by what we’ve seen from Surridge, Muyl, and Qasem. The three of them are putting together a strong case for the best supporting cast Mukhtar has ever had. And the three of them, with a little bit of Mukhtar, can undoubtedly carry this team into the playoffs.
But if Nashville want to take their ceiling to new heights, it’s time to wake up their MVP.
