Can Nashville SC set the MLS single-season points record?

If you’ve missed it, Nashville SC are playing well. Really well.

Through 21 matches, the ‘Yotes have earned 49 points. That’s the most-ever for an MLS team at this point in the season, and with 13 matches left on the schedule, they have a nine-point lead in the Supporters’ Shield race, the trophy handed to the team with the best regular-season record. It would be the first MLS trophy Nashville have ever won, after lifting their first piece of silverware – the US Open Cup – last year.

Gallery: Nashville SC’s Open Cup celebration

The Boys In Gold brought the US Open Cup trophy to Geodis Park to celebrate with the fans

SixOneFive SoccerChristina Moore

Nashville aren’t just the favorites for the Shield, though. They’re currently on pace to set the MLS single-season points record. Inter Miami currently hold the record, finishing the 2024 season with 74 points (22W-8D-4L). With an average of 2.33 points per game, Nashville are on pace to finish the 2026 season with 79 points.

Today, we’re breaking down what the ‘Yotes need to do to set the single-season points record and cement themselves as one of the greatest teams in MLS history.

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Historical context

Before we start, two quick notes. First of all, this is rarified air. For an MLS team, certainly, but especially for a Nashville sports team. Not since the 1999 Titans has Music City seen a team this dominant. In the 1999 regular season, the Titans had an 81% win percentage. In MLS play alone this year, Nashville SC have a 72% win percentage. If you factor in draws, Nashville have lost fewer games (10%) than the 1999 Titans (19%).

Even the 2016-17 Predators, whose magical run to the Stanley Cup Finals captured the imagination of the entire city, weren’t great in the regular season. They snuck into the postseason as a Wild Card team, losing 50% of their regular-season games (35% in regulation). None of this even includes Nashville SC’s run to the Concacaf Champions Cup semifinals. There’s a strong argument to be made that this team is the best in Nashville sports history.

Second, I’ve had some people in our Discord express concern that talking about breaking the points record will jinx it somehow (subscribe today to join our Discord, by the way!). For starters, I simply just don’t believe that’s a thing. Also, this team under BJ Callaghan has done an exceptional job of shutting out external noise and focusing on one game at a time. I’m not worried that will change at this stage in the season.

It's my job to talk about it. It's the team's job to show up every week and get results.

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How many points do Nashville need to set the single-season record?

Yesterday, our friends and partners at Soccerwise discussed Nashville's current pace and their potential to set the single-season points record. Matt Doyle was bullish on their odds to win the Supporters' Shield, but less so on their ability to break the single-season points record.

"That is actually kind of a bear of an upcoming schedule," he said. "I'm going to say they're not going to do it... I think they will end up with over 70 points. I think they will win the shield – they have a nine-point lead over Vancouver, even though Vancouver have a game in hand, but I don't think they're going to end up on 75 points."

That's a perfectly reasonable take from Doyle, and even if Nashville don't set the points record, lifting the Supporters' Shield at the end of the season would be their biggest success in club history to date. They would take that 10/10 times. But what would it take for them to set the record?

Here's the magic number for Nashville SC: 26 points.

With 49 points already on the table, Nashville SC have essentially already guaranteed a playoff spot. DC United are projected to finish in ninth place, the final Eastern Conference playoff spot, with 39 points. Nashville's current points are projected to be enough to finish in fifth place in the East, even if they somehow manage to lose the remainder of their matches.

The Boys In Gold have 13 matches left on the schedule: six at home, seven on the road. So far in 2026, they've averaged 2.33 points per game (the best in MLS history through 21 matches). At Geodis Park, they're averaging a staggering 2.82 points per game (10W-1D-0L), the best home record in MLS. They're not much worse on the road, with their 1.80 ppg (5W-3D-2L) the third-best mark in MLS.

If this pace continues for the remainder of the regular season, Nashville will finish the season with 79 points. To finish with 75 points, Nashville have enough wiggle room for their points per game to drop slightly. As long as they average 2.0 points per game for the rest of the season, they'll hit 75 points.

2.82 points per game over their remaining six home matches would equate to 16.92 points. 1.80 points per game for the rest of the season on the road would end with 12.60 points on the road. If we round those down to 16 home points and 12 away points, Nashville would finish the year with 77 points, breaking the single-season record by three.

What does 2.0 points per game actually look like?

2.0 points per game is great conceptually, but what does it actually mean for results on the pitch?

Nashville need to win at minimum seven of their remaining 13 matches. However, winning seven would mean they need to draw at least five matches, and can only afford one loss for the rest of the season. This would net 26 points, finishing the year with 75 points.

A less stressful path to 26 points would be eight wins, giving Nashville room for three losses as long as they draw the other two matches.

For context, Nashville have lost just twice in the entirety of the MLS regular season so far. Losing more than four of their remaining 13 matches will make 75 points mathematically impossible to achieve.

Nashville currently have a 71.4% win rate. Even dropping to a 62% win rate for the rest of the year keeps them on track to break the single-season record.

Remaining schedule

Here are the remaining games on the calendar for Nashville this season.

Our Overall Performance Index (OPI) model ranks teams based on a variety of metrics, including their actual results in the table, but also including their underlying numbers, recent form, and home versus road form. According to this model, Nashville SC have had the sixth-easiest strength of schedule in MLS this year – their have had an average OPI score of 16.12.

How does the rest of the season look? Well, according to our model, Nashville's schedule actually gets easier down the stretch. With an average opponent OPI of 13.12, only two teams in MLS have an easier-rated remaining schedule.

 One of those two teams is the Vancouver Whitecaps, who are nine points behind Nashville, but have a game in hand. Should Vancouver win their extra remaining match, Nashville's lead shrinks to six points. The 'Caps still have to play eight matches on the road, but their remaining opponents have an average OPI of 12.81.

Getting to 75 points is certainly within reach, but the margin for error is exceedingly thin. The good news for Nashville is that they've shown over 21 matches that they can maintain a historically high level, even during multiple competitions and injuries to multiple key players.

The squad is healthier than it's been all season. They're not in any other competitions and can solely focus on MLS play. And they're on the cusp of history.

Why not Nashville?