Nashville SC are still alive in Leagues Cup, but their chances of advancing to the knockout rounds are slim.
After their 4-1 win over Atlético San Luis on Sunday night, the 'Yotes are sitting on three points from two matches, ranking 11th out of 18 MLS clubs. Only the top four teams from MLS will advance to the knockout rounds, giving Nashville zero margin for error against CF Monterrey on Wednesday, as well as needing significant help from other results.
Here's what has to happen for Nashville to advance.
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1 – Win against Monterrey
Nashville have to beat CF Monterrey in regulation on Wednesday night. A penalty shootout win only nets two points under the Leagues Cup rules, and five points won't cut it. Nashville have to finish Phase One with six points, or everything else is null.
2 – At least three of the other six-point teams need to lose in regulation
Currently, six other MLS clubs – Austin FC, Charlotte FC, Chicago Fire, Columbus Crew, FC Cincinnati, and FC Dallas – have six points from their opening two games. At least three of them need to lose in regulation to open up the potential for Nashville's six points to be enough to make it into the top four.
It's also worth noting that Charlotte, Columbus, and Cincinnati all play against teams who are already eliminated, which could factor into the proceedings.
3 – LAFC and Real Salt Lake need to drop points
LAFC are on five points, while Real Salt Lake are on four. Even if other teams with two wins drop points, wins from these two sides would keep them above Nashville SC. Essentially, LAFC need to lose in regulation, and Nashville need RSL to not win in regulation to have a chance at passing them.
4 – Goal differential
Nashville SC's +2 goal differential is currently the weakest of any of the teams on six points. Not only do they need to beat Monterrey on Wednesday (who are in sixth place in the Liga MX table and coming off a solid 2-1 win over Inter Miami), but Nashville need to win big enough to make up their goal differential and pass at least three of the teams on six points.
Could Nashville be eliminated before their game?
Nashville SC could be eliminated from Leagues Cup before their game even begins, based on results from Tuesday night. Of the six games on the schedule, four of them involve teams who are ahead of Nashville.
- Charlotte don't lose to Pachuca in regulation → 7-9 points
- Columbus don't lose to Pumas in regulation → 7-9 points
- Cincinnati don't lose to Atlas in regulation → 7-9 points
- RSL beats Juárez in regulation → 7 pts
These four results would officially eliminate Nashville. Even a partial version of this scenario makes Nashville's margins even tighter than they already are.
Essentially, Nashville need a commanding team against Monterrey, who are better than either San Luis or León, while getting almost perfect results from eight other matches.
SixOneFive Soccer's simulation model gives Nashville an 8.3% chance of advancing, and even this assumes that a win over Monterrey nets a large enough goal differential to pass other six-point teams.
