I have the impossible task of writing about how Nashville SC can improve in the second half of the season.
Nashville SC, who lead the Supporters' Shield race, won at the Azteca, made the semifinals of the Concacaf Champions Cup, are undefeated in league play at home, and have taken more points on the road (14) than 22 MLS teams have won at home. Let's call it what it is: we're nitpicking.
But performances started to slide heading into the World Cup break; the underlying numbers no longer support the results, and they'll need to improve to reach their goal of silverware.
Let's look at where they need to get better.
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Expected goal difference
When the stats nerds talk about "underlying numbers," it's basically one number they're referring to: expected Goal Difference, which is calculated by subtracting xG Against from xG For.
Over the course of an entire season, it's a pretty good predictor of the final table. Nashville started the season on fire with an xGD of +6.21 through the first 8 games and won the xG battle in six of those individual games. Since then, it's been rough. The xGD has flipped to -2.9 over the final five games, and they've lost the xG battle in all but one of them.
