Is the Supporters' Shield cursed?

Nashville are about a week away from winning the 2026 MLS Supporters’ Shield.

With a 12-point lead over Vancouver Whitecaps, it’s basically done and dusted. I think even the most superstitious fans would allow me to say it at this point. It’s a wonderful achievement, and everyone should be pleased with how this season has gone. But to truly separate from the pack and establish themselves as one of the all-time great MLS teams, Nashville will attempt to add an MLS Cup to their cabinet this season.

The Boys in Gold will surely be considered the favorites going into the playoffs, but how strong are their odds of winning both, and will they fall victim to the rumored curse of the Supporters' Shield?

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The Supporters' Shield curse

Shield winners struggle in the MLS Cup Playoffs.

Since 2015 (and excluding 2020, in which only 23 regular-season games were played), Shield winners have won MLS Cup only twice: LAFC most recently in 2022, and Toronto before that in 2017. So what’s happening to the best team over a 34-game sample? Why are they losing, and is it something Nashville can avoid? Let’s investigate.

Interestingly, five of the 10 Shield winners in our sample lost to the eventual MLS Cup champion, and one lost to the runner-up. For the most part, Shield winners aren’t losing to slouches. When Goliath is slain, it’s usually by another giant, not David.

Above is the record for Shield winners in each round of the MLS Cup playoffs over the last 10 years. In years when the No. 1 seed got a bye, they were given a first-round win. Upsets early are very rare; Miami is the one exception, falling to Atlanta two years ago.

Form matters