MLS playoff primer: Format, odds, and how Nashville SC could host MLS Cup

The 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs kick off tonight, as Nashville SC travel to Florida for a marquee matchup against Lionel Messi and Inter Miami.

With Nashville in search of their second trophy in the 2025 season, we're breaking down the playoff format, how important home field advantage is, and who the favorites are to lift the Cup on December 6.

Format

MLS adopted the current playoff format in 2024. The top nine teams from the two conferences get into the playoffs, seeded in order of table position. Teams one through seven in each conference automatically qualify for Round One, while the eight and nine seeds face off against each other in a single-elimination play-in game.

Those play-in matches happened earlier this week, with Chicago Fire defeating Orlando City in the East, and the Portland Timbers knocking off Real Salt Lake in the West. They're through to Round One, which consists of a best-of-three series to determine who advances. The top seed has home-field advantage, hosting the first match and the if-necessary third match, while the lower-seeded team is guaranteed to host the second game.

In Round One, there is no aggregate scoreline. A 1-0 win counts just as much as a 10-0 win. If a match is tied after 90 minutes of regulation time, the game goes straight to a penalty kick shootout to determine the winner. The first team to win two games advances to the conference semifinals.

From the conference semifinal stage on, games are single elimination. There are no second or third legs, no aggregate scoreline, and matches that are tied at the end of regulation will go to the usual two 15-minute extra time periods, with a penalty kick shootout determining the winner if necessary. The higher seed hosts these games, from the conference semifinal all the way through to MLS Cup.

Calendar

With the play-in round completed, Round One begins tonight, Friday, October 22. It will go all the way through Sunday, November 9. As soon as Round One ends, the league will pause for the FIFA November international break from November 8-16, before resuming the playoffs with the Conference Semifinals on November 22-23.

The Conference Finals will take place on November 29-30, with MLS Cup scheduled for Saturday, December 6 at 1:30 pm CT.

How many games can Nashville host?

As a six seed, Nashville SC would be unlikely to host many games after Round One, unless several upsets took place elsewhere in the East. They can only host against Chicago Fire (8) or Columbus Crew (7).

Nashville finished with 54 points in the regular season. Should they make it to MLS Cup, they'd have hosting priority over Austin FC (47), FC Dallas (44) and Portland Timbers (44). Any other matchup would see them play on the road.

How important is home-field advantage in the playoffs?

Home field advantage is famously important in MLS, and it's especially important in the playoffs. In the past two seasons, home teams have won 27 of 39 of games (69%) in Round One.

That's why finishing in the top four is so crucial. Over the last 10 seasons, 18 out of 20 teams (90%) who have made it to MLS Cup finished in the top four. All 10 of the most recent MLS Cup winners finished top four.

Nashville haven't been great on the road. At Geodis Park, they have the third-best record in MLS, winning 11 of 17 games and finishing with a +19 goal differential. On the road, that drops drastically to just four wins and a -6 goal differential, the 19th-best record in the league. That will have to change significantly in the playoffs if Nashville are to have a chance.

What are the MLS Cup odds?

Unsurprisingly, Inter Miami are currently the favorites. BetMGM gives Lionel Messi & Co. +450 odds to win it all. Vancouver Whitecaps lead the Western Conference at +600, shortly followed by expansion upstarts San Diego FC (+650) and Los Angeles FC (+650).

Nashville have been given significantly lower odds to win at +2800, but it's a marked improvement from their preseason prediction of +5000.

MLS Cup favorites (via BetMGM)