Another weekend of MLS action means another edition of our MLS Data Power Rankings. If you're unfamiliar, we use a data-based model to create these rankings and hopefully give a more holistic view of how teams are actually performing.
Overall Performance Index
Our power rankings are solely created by a data-based model we've pretentiously labeled "the Overall Performance Index" (OPI). This new model includes the same factors as the prior edition (points per game, strength of schedule, goal difference and expected goal difference), while adding several other factors to give a more rounded picture. Here's how the model is calculated (click here for a more in-depth explanation):
1. Points per game – 25%
2. Goals Added – 15%
3. Form (last four matches) – 15%
4. Goal difference – 13%
5. Strength of schedule – 10%
6. Expected goal difference – 10%
7. Home and away form – 12%
Let's dive in!
Nashville SC jump right back into second place after a 7-2 win over Chicago Fire FC. I've talked about this before, but the underlying numbers really like this team. They have the second-best expected goal differential in MLS, the third-most goals scored, the second-best G+ differential, the second-best home record in MLS and an average strength of schedule. The big knock on them is their struggles on the road.
Playing Atlanta United this weekend could fix that. The Five Stripes drop four spots with a 3-0 loss to Orlando City, who are the big winners this week. The Lions move up six spots into the top 10, and with their midfield finally getting healthy, expect to see them continue to improve.
FC Dallas jump up five spots after a wild 4-3 win on the road against Inter Miami. They're right on the outside of the top 10. The Seattle Sounders are also on the cusp of the top 10 after a 1-1 draw against the Colorado Rapids, who drop one spot into 11th place.
Apparently the model has bought into Matt Doyle's memeing, with the Portland Timbers still behind Seattle. They've been ultra fun on the field, but are over-performing their underlying numbers by a good bit, conceding 15 goals against 18.47 xGA and scoring 18 against 13.61 xGF. According to the model they've played the second-easiest strength of schedule, and while beating the LA Galaxy 4-2 improved their score by three points, it didn't have nearly as much impact as if it had been against even a slightly below-average team. They might be due a regression as the season gets tougher.
Check back next week for another update.
