NASHVILLE, TN – Nashville SC will play their final match of the 2025 Major League Soccer regular season on Saturday.
Hosting Lionel Messi and Inter Miami, there's a lot at stake for the Boys In Gold, who have already clinched their spot in the playoffs. With the potential to secure a spot in the top four and seal home-field advantage in the playoffs, Saturday's Decision Day clash will have a significant impact on both teams heading into the playoffs.
How do the playoffs work?
Using the format MLS introduced in 2023, 18 teams (nine from each conference) qualify for the playoffs. The top seven seeded teams in each conference qualify automatically for Round One. Teams eight and nine are pitted in a play-in match, with the winner advancing to fill out the eight-team bracket for each conference.
In Round One, the teams are paired in order of seeding, with the highest seed taking on the lowest seed (one vs. eight, two vs. seven, three vs. six, etc.). This round also utilizes a best-of-three series. Aggregate score does not play a part in this series, and if a match is tied after 90 minutes, a penalty kick shootout is used to determine the winner. The first team to win two matches advances.
After Round One, the playoffs revert to a single-match elimination format through the conference finals and into MLS Cup. In these, a match that is tied after 90 minutes will go into 30 minutes of added time (two 15-minute periods) before going to a shootout if the score remains tied.
Home field advantage is crucial. In Round One, teams finishing in the top four of their conference host two games (the first match, and if necessary the third). For the rest of the playoffs, the team with the better regular-season record hosts.
Where could Nashville finish?
Nashville head into Decision Day in sixth place in the MLS Eastern Conference, with 54 points from 33 matches played. With a win, Nashville would end up on 57 points, potentially finishing as high as fourth. With a loss and results elsewhere, Nashville could drop as low as eighth.
What are the scenarios for Nashville to finish in the top four?
Nashville need a win and some outside help to make a surprise push into the top four. Here are the results they'd need:
- Nashville SC WIN vs Inter Miami
- Charlotte FC LOSS vs Philadelphia Union
- New York City FC LOSS or DRAW vs Seattle Sounders
If Nashville are able to take three points, they'd have 57. Charlotte FC take on a Philadelphia Union side who clinched the Supporters' Shield last weekend, and have the potential to rotate and stay fresh heading into the postseason. If Charlotte were to draw, they'd be level on 57 points with Nashville, but would have 18 wins to Nashville's 17. In MLS, wins are the first tiebreaker, not goals as is common in the rest of the world.
Nashville also need a loss or draw from New York City, playing against a good Seattle Sounders side, but a side on a difficult cross-country road trip. A draw from New York would have them on 57 points, but tied with Nashville for 17 wins. Nashville have a significant edge in goal difference, with a +16 advantage over New York's +7.
What are the scenarios for Nashville to drop into the play-in round?
If things go horribly wrong, Nashville could drop all the way into eighth place. They can't be passed by the Columbus Crew, who could tie them with 54 points but head into Decision Day with three fewer wins.
Dropping into eighth, though, would put Nashville on an uphill battle, with a crucial match at Geodis Park at a date to-be-determined to even qualify for Round One. Here's how that could happen.
- Nashville SC LOSS vs Inter Miami
- Orlando City WIN at Toronto FC
- Chicago Fire WIN at New England Revolution
The good news for Nashville is that both Orlando and Chicago play on the road. The bad news is that they both play against teams who have long since been eliminated from the playoffs, and both Orlando and Chicago have been really good on the road this year. With 28 points from 16 road matches, the Fire have the second-best road record in the East. Orlando are fifth with 25 points.
Chicago could theoretically pass Nashville with a win and a Nashville draw against Miami, but they'd need to win by an eight-goal margin.
Can Sam Surridge win the Golden Boot?
Nashville SC's Sam Surridge heads into Decision Day with 23 goals, tied with Hany Mukhtar's 2022 season for the most by a Nashville player in a single season. He's in contention for the Golden Boot, the trophy given to the player with the most regular-season goals, but would need an all-timer of a performance to take home the trophy.
Here's how things stand heading into the final day of the season:
- Lionel Messi (Inter Miami) | 26 goals, 18 assists
- Dénis Bouanga (LAFC) | 24 goals, 8 assists
- Sam Surridge (Nashville SC) | 23 goals, 5 assists
- Petar Musa (FC Dallas) | 18 goals, 6 assists
- Dejan Joveljić (Sporting KC) | 18 goals, 2 assists
Lionel Messi's midweek brace against Atlanta United leaves him with one hand on the trophy heading into Decision Day. After skipping international duty with Argentina to play in the MLS match, he has a two-goal lead on LAFC's Dénis Bouanga, and a three-goal advantage on Surridge. Notably, Messi also has a whopping 18 assists, giving him an insurmountable lead in tiebreakers. Even if Surridge finishes the season tied on Messi and Bouanga with goals, he'll be behind on assists.
Surridge can still take home the trophy, but he'd need Nashville to keep Messi off the scoresheet, hope Bouanga scores no more than two goals, and bag a casual four goals of his own. He's already done it once this season, smashing four past Chicago. Two four-goal outings in one year would be unprecedented.
