Nashville SC are in fine form heading into the second half of the 2025 season. On an 11-match unbeaten run, the Coyotes are currently fifth in the Supporters' Shield standings, the trophy given to the team with the best regular-season record.
What does it take to become a Supporters' Shield winner, and how close are Nashville SC to reaching that level? To answer this, let's look at the last 10 Shield winners (excluding 2020 due to COVID) to determine the standard for finishing first in the regular season.
Supporters' Shield winners have elite home form
• Eight of the last 10 winners lost two or fewer home matches
Nashville have had some frustrating results at home. From the snoozer against the Revolution to blowing a tw0-goal lead against NYCFC, it’s been decent-but-not-enough. And while they can avoid losses, great teams find ways to turn draws into wins at home.
Nashville currently have six wins, three draws and one loss at home. However, 2.1 points per game might not cut it. Every team in our sample averaged at least 2.18, with eight out of 10 averaging 2.29. Nashville’s projected 10 home wins won't be enough to meet this standard.
Many of Nashville’s struggles come from breaking down teams that have no intention of walking away with three points. Nashville has played seven home games where the opponents’ defensive action average height was 40.5 meters from their own goal or less, meaning they sat deep in a low defensive block. In those games, Nashville have a record of 4W-3D-0L and were shut out twice.
Supporters' Shield winners find a way to get three points against bunkering sides. Nashville will improve as they continue to develop as a possession-based team, but right now, it might be too late.
Criteria: Not met
Supporters' Shield winners are stellar on the road
• Nine of 10 scored at least 24 goals away from home
This is another criterion where Nashville fall just short. At 1.38 points per game on the road, the Boys In Gold will need to step it up in the second half of the season if they want to lift the Shield.
However, I believe there is some hope here. Looking at the home form table, Nashville have faced five of the top 10 teams and earned four points from those games. Outside of those matches, they've played the 17th, 26th, and 29th-ranked teams on the road and earned seven points. Since they only have one more game against a top 10 team at home, I expect NSC’s away form to improve significantly.
The same goes for the second part of this criterion; goals. With 11 goals from eight matches, Nashville are on pace for between 23 and 24 goals away from Geodis Park. I expect them to meet the 24-goal mark by the end of the year.
Criteria: Not met, for right now.
Supporters' Shield winners dominate the underlying numbers
Using American Soccer Analysis's data, which goes back to the 2013 season, all but two Supporters' Shield winners (not including the 2020 Covid season) have had at least a +10 expected goal differential.
One of those was the 2013 New York Red Bulls, who over-performed their underlying numbers significantly. The other was Inter Miami last year, whose goal differential was about 35 goals better than it should have been, per the numbers.
Nashville are on track to pass this benchmark comfortably with +10.4 xGD through 18 games. Their current pace of +0.76 xGD per match keeps them right in line with past Shield winners.
Criterion: Met
Supporters' Shield winners have elite goal-scorers
• Eight of 10 had two players with 10+ goals
The stars of Nashville are well on their way to meeting this criteria. Mukhtar and Surridge are on track to become one of the top goal-scoring duos in MLS history. Both will easily surpass 10 goals, and 15 goals shouldn't be much of a challenge for them either.
Since 2014, there have been 11 teams with 2 players who scored 15+ goals in a season. These teams average an impressive 63 points per season, which would easily put any team in the race for the Supporters' Shield and a top 4 spot in their conference.
Criteria: Met
Supporters' Shield winners have multiple goal-scorers
Another potential concern for Nashville’s Supporters' Shield hopes is that no one else is in the squad on pace to reach five goals besides Mukhtar and Surridge. And frankly, I don't think you can realistically expect anyone to hit five goals without relying on some unwarranted optimism.
Looking at the candidates, Dan Lovitz and Josh Bauer are on two goals each. However, neither is a reliable scorer, and both are performing well above their xG. Jacob Shaffelburg and Jonny Pérez make up the next set of candidates with one goal each. Both could reasonably reach five goals, but I have some concerns. Neither has secured a starting role, and neither has ever scored five goals in a season before.
Alex Muyl, Ahmed Qasem, and Tyler Boyd are also in the running and, in my opinion, the most likely to hit five goals. Muyl achieved this last year thanks to his strong late-season form under BJ Callaghan, but he hasn't found the same rhythm in 2025. Qasem also reached five goals in Sweden last year, but after a hot start, he seems to be struggling a bit with the new league. After two goals in his first two starts for Nashville, he's gone 14 MLS matches without a goal.
Tyler Boyd is arguably the most proven scorer outside of Mukhtar and Surridge, with four seasons of five or more goals in three different leagues, but he’s 30 years old and coming off an ACL tear. He's still a few weeks away from even being available for selection, let alone getting on the field. I’m not sure he can be relied on this season.
Nashville to find one more player to hit five goals. The criterion states that four players need to reach that mark. The New England Revolution were the only team to fall short of this criterion, but their top three scorers had 16, 15, and eight goals. Eight goals from the third highest scorer feels like a fever dream right now for Nashville.
Criterion: Not met
So, can Nashville SC win the Supporters' Shield?
From our sample of 10 teams, eight met at least six of our seven criteria, excluding the expected goal difference criteria.
In the best-case scenario, Nashville will reach four of the stated criteria. Unfortunately, they may have already dropped too many points at home against weaker opponents to finish at the top of the standings by year's end. They’ll need some help.
The Vancouver Whitecaps need to come back down to earth, which is common for teams making deep runs in the Concacaf Champions Cup, and it may already be happening. Vancouver have just eight points in their last five games and have shown some vulnerabilities.
The other main contender is the Philadelphia Union, whom Nashville beat in Philly, and a decline from them wouldn’t be surprising either. They’re a pressing team, and those teams often find success early in the season before chemistry develops and the heat rises to make their press less effective.
I wouldn't say Nashville are out of the race yet. But they need to reach another level if they want to bring home the Supporters' Shield trophy at the end of the regular season.
