Analysis: Scouting Ahmed Qasem

21-year-old Ahmed Qasem is the latest addition to Nashville SC’s transition into “Nashville 2.0”. Signed via MLS's U22 Initiative, Qasem joins Nashville for a reported $4.2 million from Swedish side IF Elfsborg to bolster Nashville's attack in BJ Callaghan's first full season in charge.

Qasem is a position-less attacker who will fit Callaghan’s philosophy, in which principles of play trump positions and formations. But his versatility makes him difficult to break down. If he’s a winger, his stats don’t jump off the page. If he’s a center forward, he doesn’t score nearly enough goals. Looking beyond the stats sheet, though, there's a lot to be excited about.

I think the core of his game is solid, but he will have to build on it to contribute at even one position in a more challenging league. Finding a role where Qasem is comfortable and excels will be one of Callaghan’s biggest challenges. So, let’s get into it.

Heat map

I want to start with his heat map for 2024, because his positioning will be relevant to everything we cover. Qasem is listed as a Center Forward in Wyscout; other data providers have him as a left or right winger. For Elfsborg, he played everywhere across the front line, and he even spent some time in midfield as a 10. His heat map reflects this.

Film room

Four out of five league goals and most of Qasem’s shot attempts originated from the middle third of the pitch.

Therefore, if he plays as a winger, creating opportunities that allow him to cut into the middle of the box and score will be crucial.

Next up is a lovely team move from Elfsborg that was orchestrated and finished by Qasem. I included his heat map from this game. While he's listed as the number 10 by Sofascore, his heat map is all over the pitch.

This highlight also illustrates how Nashville can create opportunities for him in the central area of the pitch. He begins on the left touchline, and due to his movement and support from teammates, he finds himself with a clear shot on goal. This is my favorite highlight because I can see Nashville players in these roles; Sam Surridge drifts wide to the left and receives the ball from Qasem, Hany Mukhtar runs in behind and hits Qasem for the goal. The positionless flow of the Elfsborg players makes it easy to see why Nashville targeted Qasem.

While most of Qasem’s goals come from the center of the pitch, his assists come from the wings. In this pair of highlights, Qasem is on the left, finding his target for an easy goal.

Here's a nice weak-foot finish. In this game, he played almost exclusively on the right wing, cutting into the middle of the pitch.

His fantastic motor is on display in this clip. He’ll terrorize opposing backlines and challenge the reigning champ of the pacer test, Alex Muyl.

Statistical breakdown

Qasem is a tricky player to analyze. Since he’s defined as a center forward in this graph, the percentile bars compare him to other center forwards in the Allsvenskan. But you can’t compare him to one position group since he has opportunities that true wingers or true strikers don’t have available.

For instance, if you compare Qasem to other strikers, his chance creation numbers jump off the charts, but that’s because he spends so much time on the wing and has more opportunities to create chances than a true striker. And if you compare Qasem to wingers, his chance creation numbers regress to the mean because he spends time at center forward and has less time to create chances than a proper winger. You can see how complicated this is getting...

While I can’t compare Qasem’s radial chart to wingers, I can show you Tobias Gulliksen’s, who has a similar profile to Qasem and was another reported target of Nashville SC. I also tried to estimate where Qasem would fall on this graph using red lines. Graphic design is my passion, so be nice.

Now, walk with me as we have some fun with extrapolation, something you should always avoid in statistics. Let’s hope neither of us gets lost along the way.

As I mentioned, Qasem’s split minutes negatively impact his per-90 percentile graph. If he plays 75 of his 90 minutes at left wing and 15 at striker, his per-90 values will suffer significantly.

I believe what we’re observing with Qasem is a player who averages less than 90 minutes played on the left wing compared to those who play a full 90 minutes. If he were to play consistently on the left wing, you could expect categories like xA, smart passes, prog carries, and so on to increase since wingers have more opportunities to dribble and create.

Conversely, his non-penalty xG (NPxG), shots, and touches in the box would likely decline because, as a full-time left winger, he has fewer chances to score goals than a full-time striker. But neither of those is a guarantee.

Regardless of his position, Qasem is very secure on the ball. He completes a high percentage of his short, medium, and smart passes and is also a solid dribbler. If we could extrapolate his data out to a full-time left winger, I do think we would see his total number of smart passes and expected assists (xA) increase to the point where I’d consider him to be quite a good chance creator for his team. 

In the graph below, I compared his smart passes per 90 minutes and xA per 90 minutes to every other winger and striker in the Allsvenskan. It’s fine, but he doesn’t stand out. Qasem is one of 15 forwards in the Allsvenskan who averaged more than 0.5 NPxG and 0.5 xA per 90 minutes. His dual-threat ability to assist his teammates and score himself is rare.

One thing is for sure: Qasem is excellent at pressing.

We saw his motor in a goalscoring highlight shown above, but he also uses that motor on the defensive side of the ball. The team's style of play can heavily influence defensive numbers; if the team doesn’t press, committing defensive actions as an attacker is difficult. But as his radial chart shows, Elfsborg presses, and Qasem excels at it.

Conclusion

Scouting Qasem has been challenging for me. In the end, I’m still unsure what to think.

Initially, I was impressed by his radial chart's blue and green bars, but I found them somewhat misleading as I delved deeper. However, watching Elfsborg in their yellow kits helped me see the vision and reignite my excitement. The talk all off-season has been about how Nashville SC are taking chances on players who will raise the ceiling or potentially lower the floor, and Qasem is a perfect example of that.

If the move works out, Nashville have a Travis Hunter-esque do-it-all attacker who creates chances on the wing and scores up top. But if it goes poorly, Qasem could struggle for minutes and never establish himself as a starter in any position.

U22 players come with an inherent risk that has turned Nashville SC away in the past, but the potential with Qasem is just too good to turn down.