Analysis: Huntsville City's struggles to start the season

The first international break is in full swing. World Cup dreams are being realized and dashed just as fast as the whistles can blow around the world.

This is also one of the few extended breaks that MLS Next Pro observes — unlike others, the third-division league won't pause its season this summer for the World Cup. In other words, it's the perfect time to take stock of the little data we have on the progress in the Rocket City.

The season so far

Huntsville City FC has played the opening four games of their 2026 season, compiling one victory in regulation, two defeats, and one victory in a penalty shootout over Chattanooga FC. They've scored eight goals, but conceded a whopping 14, almost half of the 32 that Huntsville conceded in all of 2025 (of course, with the obvious caveat that seven of those came against Crown Legacy FC alone).

Their five points have the Billy Goats sitting in 10th at this very early stage in the season. Looking at last season as a rough benchmark, which we can be pretty certain would get Huntsville back into the playoffs, the Billies have milestones set at 53 points, 56 goals scored, and 32 conceded.

And after glancing at the last four years of MLS Next Pro tables, it seems that anything north of 45 points is generally enough to make the playoffs — especially in the last couple of seasons, since playoffs have expanded to eight teams per conference. That equals out to around 1.6 points per game. No team with a positive goal difference has missed the playoffs in the eight-team era (since 2024) either.

So generally, we can assume they need 45 points and a positive goal difference. How close or far is Huntsville from this goal?

Are Huntsville a playoff team?

Again, it's very, very early, and Huntsville are still adding players who could solve some of these issues, but there appears to be a fairly significant disconnect between the lines.

Huntsville City add three more players

On Thursday, Huntsville City FC added a trio of new players for the 2026 season. 17-year-old midfielder Matteo Zambrano has been signed from Real Salt Lake, with his homegrown rights also acquired. The central midfielder has represented both the United States (U16) and Ecuador (U17). Winger Fabian Reynolds signs from

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Just like the first team, Huntsville want to play with the ball, and they want to get the ball to their best attacking players as quickly and as often as possible. In the Rocket City, that seems to be Shak Mohammed and Maximus Ekk so far, who are either signed to first-team deals or on the fringes.

Too often, though, Huntsville are overly reliant on long balls from back to front, and hasn't quite found the balance to hold possession effectively in midfield. An example of this is their last game against Chattanooga. In the first half, the Billies attempted 29 long balls and completed 17 of those passes. This led to 38 final third entries and all this pressure turned into two goals.

After the half, the script totally flipped. Huntsville still attempted 25 long balls, but only completed ten. This led to 11 fewer final third entries. It's not hard to put two and two together to find out that fewer final third entries mean fewer goals.

Right now, if the long balls aren't clicking, Huntsville aren't clicking. Perhaps some of this is chemistry issues in midfield. Perhaps some of it is a product of injuries in the squad, particularly at the back to players such as Chris Applewhite. Or perhaps it's a combination of a few things that will work themselves out over time.

Regardless, a solution needs to be found. Head coach Chris O'Neal has tweaked the lineup here and there, and the team does generally look better with certain first-teamers like Jordan Knight and Charles-Émile Brunet on the field, of course Shak Mohammed also fits in that category.

It does seem that one key piece of the team appears to be returning from whatever it is that kept him out of the first three fixtures. Zach Barrett missed the squad entirely before making a start and playing the first half against Chattanooga. He was a steady presence all of 2025 at the back, and I'm sure his return to the team can only be a benefit.

All in all, my best guess is that Huntsville is still probably a playoff-caliber team, and that the particularly brutal defeats on the road at Crown Legacy and Atlanta United 2 are going to become more of an aberration than an expectation moving forward, especially as squad health increases and more fixtures are at home.

Up next

Coming up after the layoff, the Billies have a road date with Chicago Fire on April 11th, followed by a home stand against Inter Miami 2 on the 18th. Then, they get another week off before returning home to take on Chattanooga on May 2nd.

If my math and calendar literacy are correct, that is the final break of longer than eight days between games for the rest of the season. Also, feel free to sound off in the comments on the Billy Goats nickname; feedback is greatly appreciated on that front.