After another week of MLS action, our Power Rankings model has broken down every team's performance and pulled all the data to show how your club has performed.
The OPI model
Our power rankings are solely created by a data-based model we've pretentiously labeled "the Overall Performance Index" (OPI). This new model includes the same factors as the prior edition (points per game, strength of schedule, goal difference, and expected goal difference), while adding several other factors to provide a more rounded picture.
Ben Wright
We've built a really cool Power Rankings app that updates in real time and lets you explore the data. It also includes an in-depth explainer of the methodology we use. We're continuing to build out some of the coolest interactive data apps in independent soccer media, and we hope you'll follow along with us!
Matchday 27 Power Rankings
Vancouver Whitecaps and Nashville SC maintained a stranglehold on the top two spots, with both sides winning 3-0 and increasing their scores by over 2.40 points. Vancouver's underlying numbers have pushed them eight points above Nashville, with a ridiculous +32.9 expected goal differential.
St. Louis City SC, New England Revolution, and Philadelphia Union are three of the most in-form teams in MLS, and that has been reflected in the table with late climbs into the top 10. St. Louis jump two spots after a 3-1 win over Toronto FC, while New England move up four places after a 4-2 win over Orlando.
Philadelphia's two-point drop is slightly misleading; their score increased marginally (+0.19) after a 4-3 win against Sporting KC, but it wasn't enough to keep up with much larger gains from teams around them. There's also the simple fact that Sporting are so low in the rankings that anything but a dominant win against them won't be rewarded.
LAFC have won just one of nine matches since August, but their underlying numbers have been good enough that the model has artificially inflated their score. That's finally starting to correct, though. After last week's 3-1 loss to Sporting KC, and a 2-2 draw with San Jose, they drop two spots, and are in danger of (rightfully) dropping out of the top 10. Last month's changes to the model mean that their early-season results can no longer prop up recent bad form. Don't be surprised to see them drop even further.
Weekly winner
The Columbus Crew saw their OPI increase by 2.50 points, barely edging out Nashville SC's 2.48 increase, and jumping six spots in the table after a comprehensive 2-0 win over CF Montréal on the road. They're still just the 19th-ranked team, but the model likes them more than the actual table.
Weekly loser
Chicago Fire FC saw their score drop by 2.66 points after a heavy 3-0 loss in Nashville. They were thoroughly outclassed from the start and were lucky to go into halftime only down 1-0. Despite an improved stretch of play after the break, they simply couldn't handle Nashville's energy or ideas, and are now four points out of the top four.
To make matters worse, the Fire have the toughest remaining schedule in MLS, according to the OPI model. They haven't won in seven matches, and it could well get worse.
