The 2026 MLS regular season is just over halfway over. Of the league's 30 teams, 24 have played 19 of their 34 matches already, two have played 20, and four have played 18.
If you've missed it, we developed a Scorigami bot on Bluesky, which posts results after every MLS match.
MLS Scorigami
As an addition to the bot, we've developed a model that generates odds for MLS Cup, Supporters' Shield, and playoff qualification. This model runs 2,000 simulations after every remaining regular-season and playoff match, using current home and away points per game (60%) and our OPI Rankings (40%) to predict the rest of the season.
The full results of the simulation can be viewed below, but here's a quick snapshot of what the model currently projects.
MLS Cup odds
- Inter Miami CF (16.0%)
- Vancouver Whitecaps (14.0%)
- Nashville SC (11.0%)
- San Jose Earthquakes (9.2%)
- Chicago Fire (8.8%)
- Los Angeles FC (5.5%)
- Houston Dynamo (5.0%)
- New England Revolution (5.0%)
- Charlotte FC (4.1%)
- St. Louis City (4.0%)
Inter Miami are the favorites to repeat, with the model heavily banking on their underlying numbers and a second-place finish in the East giving them home-field advantage through most of the playoffs. Vancouver Whitecaps are the favorites out of the Western Conference, and have put up the best underlying numbers in the league. They also have the added bonus of few real contenders to play in the postseason.
Four teams are already given a 0% chance of winning MLS Cup: CF Montréal, Atlanta United, Sporting Kansas City, and Austin FC.
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Supporters' Shield odds
- Nashville SC (43.0%)
- Vancouver Whitecaps (28.0%)
- Inter Miami CF (26.0%)
- Chicago Fire (1.9%)
- San Jose Earthquakes (<1%)
Current leaders Nashville SC are given a 43% chance to finish the season in first place and win the Supporters' Shield, up considerably from their 11% MLS Cup odds. Vancouver Whitecaps are second with a 28% shot, while Inter Miami round out the only real contenders at this point with a 26% chance.
Chicago Fire are fourth, but their odds are a mere 1.9%. Teams 11-30 are given a 0% chance to win the shield.
MLS Cup Playoffs odds
- Vancouver Whitecaps (100.%)
- Inter Miami CF (100.0%)
- Nashville SC (100.0%)
- Chicago Fire (100.0%)
- San Jose Earthquakes (99.0%)
- Los Angeles FC (98.0%)
- Houston Dynamo (98.0%)
- Charlotte FC (92.0%)
- FC Cincinnati (92.0%)
- New England Revolution (91.0%)
25. LA Galaxy (19.0%)
26. Toronto FC (14.0%)
27. CF Montréal (8.0%)
28. Atlanta United (2.8%)
29. Austin FC (1.3%)
30. Sporting KC (<1%)
According to the model, four teams have all but officially clinched their spot in the playoffs. San Jose, LAFC, and Houston Dynamo are nearly locked in in the West, while Charlotte FC, FC Cincinnati, and New England Revolution are the favorites in the East.
At the bottom, Atlanta United, Austin FC, and Sporting KC have almost no hope of qualifying for the playoffs, all on pace to finish at least 10 points out of the playoff spots.
The full results of the model's simulation can be found here. These predictions will update in real time as more matches are completed.
MLS Title Odds
Playoff, Supporters' Shield, and MLS Cup probabilities — click any column to sort. Updates automatically.
| # | Club | Playoffs | Shield | MLS Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading odds… | ||||
2,000 simulations · blended OPI + points-per-game rating · @mlsscorigami.bsky.social
