The first round of the 2026 World Cup group stage is over, and all 48 teams have played one game. We've had some incredible results through the first 24 matches, like Cabo Verde's 0-0 draw with Spain, Sweden's 5-1 demolition of Tunisia, or the United States kicking off their tournament with one of the best performances in their history.
Ben Wright
Here at SixOneFive Soccer, we've built a probability model that uses the FIFA World Rankings' Elo model and runs 5,000 simulations after every match to simulate the entire tournament and predict each team's odds. Here's where things stand after the first round of games.
The favorites
Our model has designated three teams as the clear favorites through the first round: France (13.5%), Argentina (13.0%), and Spain (11.8%). France and Argentina both opened their tournament with convincing wins, and while Spain didn't earn three points in their opener, the model still gives them a 90% chance of advancing from Group H.
In a tier of their own are England (9.1%), who have a 99% chance of advancing from Group L after their electric 4-2 win over Croatia.
Portugal (5.6%), Brazil (4.7%), Morocco (4.3%), the Netherlands (4.2%), and Germany (4.1%) round out the teams with the best odds to win it all.
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The biggest movers
Sweden end the round with the biggest increase to their odds of advancing. Their 5-1 win over Tunisia shot their odds up 55 points, leaving them with a 95% chance of advancing from Group F, and ahead of pre-tournament favorites in Japan and the Netherlands.
Meanwhile, Scotland's gritty 1-0 win over Haiti gives them an 82% chance to advance from Group C. It's one of the more difficult groups in the tournament, with Brazil (92%) and Morocco (92%) both predicted to advance to the Quarterfinals.
That's the positive movement. The flip side of that coin sees Türkiye drop from their pre-tournament advancement odds of 69% down to 41% after their 2-0 loss to Australia. Similarly, Algeria drop from 64% down to 43% after their 3-0 loss to Argentina, while Panama's last-second loss to Ghana drops them down to just a 25% chance of advancing, after entering the tournament with 60%.
The group of chaos
Many people predicted Group C to be the chaos group heading into the tournament, and they certainly have a point; Brazil and Morocco are level with 92% odds, and Scotland looks in good shape to advance on 82%. Haiti are the clear losers here, with just a 10% chance of advancing and still having to play Brazil and Morocco.
But Group H is certainly a chaos group. Spain are the leaders here, with a 90% chance to make it out of the group. Behind them, though, all three teams are very much alive. Uruguay have a 76% chance of advancing, while Saudi Arabia (52%) and Cabo Verde (51%) are both essentially coin flips. With all four teams level on one point, anything can happen in the final two rounds.
Group H is similarly chaotic, although the model isn't quite as bullish on everyone's chances. All four teams are tied on a single point, with Belgium (88%) and Egypt (79%) the favorites after their 1-1 draw. Iran (65%) are in good shape to advance, and while New Zealand's 32% isn't quite as favorable, they certainly have a fighting chance.
Group B, though... that's the real group of chaos. All four teams are within 29 percentage points of each other. Switzerland lead the group with an 81% chance, after conceding a last-second equalizer to Qatar, who see their odds of moving on jump to 65%. Canada have the worst odds to advance of any host nation at 68%, but showed plenty of grit to fight back and draw 1-1 with Boznia & Herzegovina, who themselves have a 52% shot to make it to the Round of 32.
Could the United States go on a run?
After their 4-1 win over Paraguay, the United States have a 97% chance to advance from their group, tied with Mexico as the best among the three host nations. Their 2.2% chance of winning the tournament is the 15th-best of the tournament, but the model does like their odds of making a deep run into the knockout rounds.
After the group stage, the model gives the Americans a 57% chance of advancing to the Round of 16, a 27% chance of making it to the Quarterfinals, and a 12% chance of a Semifinal appearance. Currently, the model predicts the United States to beat Qatar in the Round of 32 before falling to Belgium in the Round of 16, although the Round of 16 matchup is essentially a coin flip.
You can follow along with our model's predictions by following our Scorigami bot on Bluesky – @worldcupscorigami.bsky.social.
You can also follow it in our live app, which will update tournament odds after every match. We're currently working on an update to the model, switching from a pure probability model to a Poisson simulation, which will result in more accurate scoreline predictions. While some of the third-place simulations may chance slightly, the overall probabilities will remain accurate.
SixOneFive Soccer Staff
